econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 28 January 2017

December 2016 Philly Fed Coincident Index Shows Continuing Slowing Of Economic Rate of Growth

The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index marginally slowed relative to last month's revised level. A comparison of this US Coincident Index with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board Coincident Index, ECRI's Coincident Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index follows.

Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators

Thereality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision - but this month it seems the majority rear view mirror says the USA economy is slowing, flat or improving. Out of this group of coincident indicators discussed in this post, only ECRI and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index have no backward revision - and both have a good track record of seeing the economy accurately in almost real time.

For December, it show that the economy is weak but not recessionary.

Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool.

Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 90. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed's U.S. index rose 0.2 percent in December and 0.6 percent over the past three months.

[click graph below to enlarge]

z philly coincident.PNG

In the graph below, the blue line shows the year-over-year growth rate of the US Concident Index, while the darker blue line shows the month-over-month change. The year-over-year trend is down.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Per the Philly Fed:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. The ADS index may be used to compare business conditions at different times. A value of -3.0, for example, would indicate business conditions significantly worse than at any time in either the 1990-91 or the 2001 recession, during which the ADS index never dropped below -2.0.

The vertical lines on the figure provide information as to which indicators are available for which dates. For dates to the left of the left line, the ADS index is based on observed data for all six underlying indicators. For dates between the left and right lines, the ADS index is based on at least two monthly indicators (typically employment and industrial production) and initial jobless claims. For dates to the right of the right line, the ADS index is based on initial jobless claims and possibly one monthly indicator.

Conference Board's Coincident Index (red line):

z conference.png

ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index):

z ecri_coin.png

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Summary

Generally the coincident indices are showing slowing or stable but weak growth: Econintersect's analysis of the coincident indices is that:

  • The Philly Fed US Coincident index shows the annual rate of growth continues to slow.
  • The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions shows good business conditions.
  • The rate of growth of the Conference Board Coincident Index is stable with slow growth.
  • ECRi's Coincident Index's rate of growth marginally declined.
  • The CFNAI rate of growth is below the historical trend rate of growth (zero line) - but is showing some improving growth.


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Slow Economic Growth Will Be Around For A Long Time
The Job Guarantee, Wage-Price Inflation And Alternative Solutions: Part 2
News Blog
NASA Precise Landing Technologies Tested On Vertical Testbed Rocket
March 2017 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Again Improves In March 2017.
Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index January 2017 Shows 5.7 % Year-over-Year Growth
A Changing Rulebook To Tame The New Global Arms Race
Infographic Of The Day: Chart: Understanding Alphabet's 4 Billion Dollar In "Other Bets"
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks And Dollar Up, Oil, Gold Steady, Obama Climate Policies Gone, US Oil Glut, Euro Surges, Shorts Remain, Trump Into Yemen?, Iran-Russia Deals, Cat 4 Cyclone Hits Oz, And More
March 27, 2017 Weather and Climate Report - Will the MJO Deliver a Nino?
The Most Reputable Companies Worldwide
Gut Bacteria Play A Role In Long-term Weight Gain
What We Read Today 27 March 2017 - Special Public Edition
Is Less More In The Smartphone Market
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 27 March 2017 Statistically Unchanged - Again
Investing Blog
The Dollar's Coming Impact On Markets
The Real 401k Plan Manager 27 March 2017
Opinion Blog
Macron May Lead But Le Pen Remains The Big Story
Is The 20th Century Still The 'Hayek Century'?
Precious Metals Blog
These Gold Stocks Will Produce Much Bigger Gains Than Gold Itself
Live Markets
28Mar2017 Market Update: Wall Street Ends 8 Day Losing Streak, DOW Up Triple Digits After Strong Consumer Confidence Number, US Dollar Climbs Higher, Energy Up 1%
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved