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posted on 26 January 2017

January 2017 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Unchanged

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for January, all are in expansion..

Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing

Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index was unchanged. Key internals were little changed. The historical data was revised to incorporate " new seasonal adjustment factors" - but the effects were minor.

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was +9. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the January Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand moderately with strong expectations for future activity.

"We had another solid composite index reading in January, and firms' expectations for future activity were the highest in more than twelve years," said Wilkerson.

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand moderately, and producers' expectations for future activity increased considerably. Most price indexes recorded little change, with the exception of current selling prices which fell modestly.

The month-over-month composite index was 9 in January, unchanged from 9 in December but up from 0 in November (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity in durable goods plants increased moderately, particularly for metals, electronics, and machinery, while nondurable goods plants expanded at a slower pace with food production falling considerably. Most month-over-month indexes improved slightly in January. The production index moved slightly higher from 18 to 20, and the shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also increased. The employment index moderated somewhat from 8 to 6, and the new orders for exports index remained negative. The finished goods inventory index decreased from 0 to -4, and the raw materials inventory index also fell into negative territory.

Most year-over-year factory indexes increased considerably. The composite year-over-year index rose from 0 to 7, and the production, shipments, and new orders indexes recorded their highest levels in over two years. The order backlog index jumped from -5 to 5, and the employment index also moved into positive territory. In contrast, the capital expenditures index inched lower from 2 to -2, and the new orders for exports index continued to decline. The raw materials inventory index increased from -9 to -3, and the finished goods inventory index also rose.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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