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posted on 13 January 2017

06 January 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Marginally Improves

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 42nd week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation index this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle with both indices improving. Still, they are indicating conditions 6 months from today may be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 144.9 from 144.6. The growth rate edged up to 12.2% from 12.0%, a 348-week high, highest since May 7, 2010.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "2016 Shapes 2017 Cyclical Outlook".

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows a small decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. FIG Dips in December

U.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 113.0 from a downwardly revised 113.6 reading in November, first reported as 113.8, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG slipped in December, while staying near November's 8½-year high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to be elevated."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth marginally declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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