econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 12 January 2017

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Inflation Returns in December 2016.

Written by Steven Hansen

Import and export prices are now inflating year-over-year after years of deflation.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

As predicted, both export and import prices began inflating in December. What does this mean? Not a whole lot to consumers as non-fuel imports deflated this month. Export prices are generally indexed to market conditions - which would indicate inflation in global markets.

Import Oil prices were up 7.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 0.3 %.

  • with import prices up 0.4 % month-over-month, up 1.8 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 0.3 % month-over-month, up 1.1 % year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change -0.1 % to 1.4 % +0.7 % +0.4 %
Export Prices - M/M change -0.2 % to 0.3 % +0.2 % +0.3 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices resumed an upward trend in December, rising 0.4 percent following a 0.2- percent decline in November. Prices for overall imports advanced 1.8 percent between December 2015 and December 2016, the largest 12-month increase since the index rose 3.5 percent in March 2012. The increase in 2016 was the first calendar-year advance since import prices rose 8.5 percent in 2011.

All Exports: Export prices advanced 0.3 percent in December matching the 0.3-percent rise in September; those were the largest increases for the index since a 0.8-percent rise in June. In December, higher nonagricultural prices more than offset declining agricultural prices. Prices for overall exports rose 1.1 percent for the year ended in December, the first 12-month increase since the index advanced 0.4 percent in August 2014 and the largest over-the-year rise since a 1.5-percent increase in February 2013.

How moderate the price "increases" have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Was Marx Right?
Angst in America, Part 4: Disappearing Pensions
News Blog
Infographic Of The Day: These Are The Countries Most and Least Prepared For Cyber Attacks
Documentary Of The Week: History Of The World From The Beginning Of 'Time'
The Four Factors That Decide How We Feel About Income Inequality
Why Mexican Immigrants Are Healthier Than Their US-born Peers
The US View On Climate Change
Hilarious Security Camera Compilation
Brexit: Whither The Pound?
Is Chinese Growth Overstated?
Trading Ideas Between Countries
Recession To Recovery: A Decade In Perspective
Infographic Of The Day: Visualizing America's Changing Energy Mix
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Up, Dollar And Oil Down, Gold Stable, Trump Tax Plan Today, Trump Reviews National Monuments, UK Deficit Lowest In 10 Years, China Banking Crisis, Canadian Lumber Tariff, And More
Jesus Christ vs. Confucius
Investing Blog
Facebook Is Coming After Snapchat From All Sides
Know Your Energy Sector
Opinion Blog
Squeezing The Philippine Peso
Trump Just Imposed A New Tax On Lumber
Precious Metals Blog
A New Age For Gold
Live Markets
26Apr2017 Market Close: Wall Street Closes In The Red After What First Appeared To Be Another Green Session, WTI Crude Slips Down Into The Low 49 Handle, While Gold Trends Sharply Higher
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved