econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 10 January 2017

November 2016 Wholesale Sales Improved Again

Written by Steven Hansen

The headlines say wholesale sales were up month-over-month with inventory levels up slightly and remaining at levels associated with recessions. Our analysis shows some improvement of the 3 month averages, and the three month averages are in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of this month's Wholesale Sales

The headlines said this sector improved this month. The growth this month was widespread. Overally, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story - and they improved this month. There is an obvious growth trendline in wholesale - and the data set is now showing normal growth for times of economic expansion.

Inventories remain at elevated levels - note that they declined from last year's level.

To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match.

Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 7.8 % month-over-month.
  • unadjusted sales year-over-year growth is up 6.8 % year-over-year (it was -1.1 % last month)
  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 5.9 % year-over-year
  • the 3 month rolling average of unadjusted sales was unchanged month-over-month, and up 2.1 % year-over-year.

  • unadjusted inventories grew 1.6 % year-over-year (up 1.9 % month-over-month), inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.29 which historically is well above recessionary levels.

US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:

  • sales up 0.4 % month-over-month, up 3.4 % (last month was originally reported up 2.2 %) year-over-year
  • inventories up 0.1 % month-over-month, inventory-to-sales ratios were 1.34 one year ago - and are now 1.32.
  • Expectations for inventory growth from Bloomberg / Econoday were between 0.3 % to 0.9 % (consensus +0.9 %) vs. the actual at 0.4 %

Wholesale sales were at record highs for almost two years - until 2015 where they contracted year-over-year (and the contraction continues). Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratios (a rising ratio is an indicator of economic slowing) is extremely high.

Unadjusted Inventory-to-Sales Ratio - Percent Change From One Year Ago

Year-over-year change in the inventory-to-sales ratio is what is important. A jump in the ratio which could indicate a slowing economy (one month of data is not a trend). A flat trend would indicate an economy which was neither accelerating or decelerating. A decelerating trend would indicate an improving economy. Since mid-2014 there has been a general deterioration of the inventory-to-sales ratio indicating a slowing economy.

Caveats on the Use of this Index

The data in this index continues to be revised up to 3 months following initial reporting. The revision usually is not significant enough to change the interpretation of each month's data in real time. Generally there are also annual revisions to this data series.

The methodology used by US Census to seasonally adjust the data is not providing a realistic understanding of the month-to-month movements of the data. One reason is that US Census uses data over multiple years which includes the largest modern recession which likely distorts the analysis. Further, Econintersect believes there has been a fundamental shift in seasonality in the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2007 - the New Normal.

Econintersect determines the month-over-month change by subtracting the current month's year-over-year change from the previous month's year-over-year change. This is the best of the bad options available to determine month-over-month trends - as the preferred methodology would be to use multi-year data (but the New Normal effects and the Great Recession distort historical data).

This series is NOT inflation adjusted. To make this adjustment Econintersect uses the PPI - subindex Total Wholesale AWHLTRAWHLTR.

As economic indicators go, wholesale sales and inventories are poor at spotting economic problems. Wholesale data did not start contracting during the Great Recession until October 2008. The only portion of wholesale trade data which seems to correspond to general economic conditions is wholesale trade employment.

All Employees - Wholesale



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Democratic Development Lowers the Cost of Credit
Is Growing Household Debt An Economic Counter-Dynamic?
News Blog
Where You Can Surf A Lot For A Little In The EU
'I Can Live With Either One': Palestine, Israel And The Two-state Solution
Where Snapchat's Users Come From
What We Read Today 26 February 2017
INAUGURATION DAY: A Bad Lip Reading Of Donald Trump's Inauguration
Did The Dodd-Frank Act Make The Financial System Safer?
A Close Look At The Decline Of Homeownership - Part Five Of Five
Do Institutional Investors Chase Returns?
Infographic Of The Day: How To Survive A Deadly Snake Bite
Early Headlines: Global Mfg 1970-2010, No Refugee Spike, GOP Health Proposal Leak, GOP Town Halls, Trump's Debt Decrease, Macron Gains, China's $9 Trn Moral Hazard, Americans Oppose Wall And More
Premium Seats At Premium Events Equal Premium Prices
Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 27 February 2017
Time Crystals: How Scientists Created A New State Of Matter
Investing Blog
Vizualizing Ten Reasons For Caution
Snapchat Is In The Money Burning Business
Opinion Blog
Why Winning The French Presidential Election Could Be A Poisoned Chalice
Unintended Consequences Of Corporate Tax Incentives
Precious Metals Blog
Deflation And Gold: A Contrarian View
Live Markets
24Feb2017 Market Close: Wall Street Rose From Session Lows To Close In The Green Near The Unchanged Line, Short-Term Indicators And Analysts Questioning Continuing Bull Run
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved