posted on 24 December 2016
Written by Steven Hansen
Truck shipments declined or improved in November - depending on the data source. Trucking, like rail, may be in contraction - but year-over-year growth is likely trending up.
The American Trucking Associations' (ATA) trucking index decreased 0.3 % in October following a 6.3 % decline in September.
From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
Truck tonnage this month
Compared with one year ago, seasonally adjusted tonnage increased 5.7 %.
Econintersect tries to validate ATA truck data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry employment levels were up month-over-month - but insignificantly. Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly).
FTR's Trucking Conditions Index for October Pulls Back Ahead of Expected Market Improvement
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT
After a promising Shipments Index in October broke the string of 20 months in negative territory, November fell back into negative territory, albeit slightly. We have seen a wide range of results in the different modes: from continued volume growth in parcel and airfreight driven by e-commerce, to a sequential improvement in truck tonnage, to less bad rail and barge volume overall. Although it is far too early to make a 'change in trend' call, data is beginning to suggest that the consumer is finally starting to spend a little, and that with the recent surge in the price of crude the industrial economy's rate of deceleration has eased. If the winter of the current year-and-a-half freight recession in the U.S. is not over, it is certainly showing increasing signs of thawing.
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