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posted on 16 December 2016

09 December 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 38th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their inflation outlook this past week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle with both indices improving. Still, they are indicating conditions 6 months from today may be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 143.4 from 143.1, the highest since June 8, 2007, a 496-week high. The growth rate increased to 11.0% from 9.7%, the highest since May 7, 2010, a 344-week high.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.

- read Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on The New York Times.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The October index value (issued in November) shows a small improvement in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises in November

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.8 from a downwardly revised 113.4 reading in October, first reported as 113.7, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The Septembers economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth significantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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