posted on 14 December 2016
Written by Steven Hansen
The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation 1.3 %. This is the highest year-over-year rise seen since November 2014.
The PPI represents inflation pressure (or lack thereof) that migrates into consumer price.
The producer price inflation breakdown:
In the following graph, one can see the relationship between the year-over-year change in intermediate goods index and finished goods index. When the crude goods growth falls under finish goods - it usually drags finished goods lower.
Percent Change Year-over-Year - Comparing PPI Finished Goods (blue line) to PPI Intermediate Goods (red line)
Econintersect has shown how pricing change moves from the PPI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This YoY change implies that the CPI, should continue to come in around 2.0% YoY.
Comparing Year-over-Year Change Between the PPI Finished Goods Index (blue line) and the CPI-U (red line)
The price moderation of the PPI began in September 2011 when the year-over-year inflation was 7.0%.
Caveats on the Use of Producer Price Index
Econintersect has performed several tests on this series and finds it fairly representative of price changes (inflation). However, the headline rate is an average - and for an individual good or commodity, this series provides many sub-indices for specific application.
A very good primer on the Producer Price Index nuances can be found here.
Because of the nuances in determining the month-over-month index values, the year-over-year or annual change in the PPI index is preferred for comparisons.
There is moderate correlation between crude goods and finished goods. Higher crude material prices push the finished goods prices up.
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