econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 13 December 2016

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Moderated Again in November 2016.

Written by Steven Hansen

Import and export prices continue to deflate year-over-year - although the year-over-year rate of deflation again moderated this month - with import prices now barely deflating.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Both import and export price deflation is moderating when looking year-over-year. The month-over-month figures given in the headlines only confuse. At the current rate of moderation of deflation (trend line) - both imports and export prices should start inflating by the end of the year. What was interesting this month is that import fuel prices increased whilst total imports deflated - and export prices deflated month-over-month whilst agriculture imports deflated.

Import Oil prices were up 7.2 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices up 0.4 %.

  • with import prices down 0.3 % month-over-month, down 0.1 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices down 0.1 % month-over-month, down 0.3 % year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change -0.7 % to 0.3 % -0.4 % -0.3 %
Export Prices - M/M change -0.2 % to 0.3 % +0.0 % -0.1 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: The price index for U.S. imports declined 0.3 percent in November, the largest monthly decrease since the index fell 0.5 percent in February. Prior to November, import prices had trended up since February, with the only decline coming in August when the index fell 0.2 percent. Despite rising throughout much of 2016, import prices remained down on a 12-month basis, declining 0.1 percent between November 2015 and November 2016. The last over-the-year advance in import prices was a 0.9-percent increase in July 2014.

All Exports: The price index for overall exports edged down 0.1 percent in November, after increasing 0.2 percent in October and 0.3 percent in September. In November, declining nonagricultural prices led the overall decrease. U.S. export prices also fell over the past 12 months, decreasing 0.3 percent. Export prices have not risen on a 12-month basis since the index rose 0.4 percent between August 2013 and August 2014.

How moderate the price "increases" have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Slow Economic Growth Will Be Around For A Long Time
The Job Guarantee, Wage-Price Inflation And Alternative Solutions: Part 2
News Blog
Early Headlines: OPEC Strategy Fails, Amazon And State Sales Tax, Tillerson Will Attend NATO, GOP Troubles, Euro Shorts Fading, Marine 'Loves' Vlad, Russia Ready For $40 Oil, And More
The World's Most Boring Jobs
PewDiePie Weathering The Storm
American Doctors: The Prognosis Isn't Good
What We Read Today 24 March 2017
The Federal Reserve Banks Provided $91.5 Billion Remittances To The U.S. Treasury In 2016
17 March 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Shows Continued Moderate Slowing Of Rate of Growth
Durable Goods New Orders Improved in February 2017
Why NASA Won't Send Humans To Venus
Rail Week Ending 18 March 2017: Short Term Rate of Growth Slowing
How Taxes And Transfers Affect The Work Incentives Of People With Low And Moderate Income
How Tourism Affects China's Current Account Surplus
Infographic Of The Day: The Habits Of Highly Successful Entrepreneurs
Investing Blog
Avoiding The Trap Of The Demo Trading Account
Snap's Pre-IPO Revenue Per User In Context
Opinion Blog
Robots, Aliens, Corporate Drones - Who Will Be The Citizens Of The Future?
Is Our Hard-wired Negativity Bias Useful Or Something To Overcome?
Precious Metals Blog
These Gold Stocks Will Produce Much Bigger Gains Than Gold Itself
Live Markets
24Mar2017 Market Close: Trumpcare Collapses But Little Affect On The Markets
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved