econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 07 December 2016

October 2016 JOLTS Job Openings Rate Shows Insignificant Year-over-Year Growth

Written by Steven Hansen

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the year-over-year growth rate of unadjusted private non-farm job openings were insignificantly changed from last month.

Analyst Opinion of JOLTS Data

It comes as no surprise that JOLTS is continuing to show little year-over-year job openings growth. Historically, this indicates significant slowing of employment growth. Both employment and JOLTS job openings year-over-year growth have been slowing for the past year. This aligns with Econintersect's Employment Index and the Conference Boards Employment Index - but both indices are forecasting moderate employment gains similar to the last fjour months weaker employment growth.

There was no market expectations from Bloomberg this month.

  • the number of unadjusted PRIVATE jobs openings - which is the most predictive of future employment growth of the JOLTS elements - shows the year-over-year growth is near the lowest level since the Great Recession. The year-over-year growth of the unadjusted non-farm private jobs opening rate (percent of job openings compared to size of workforce) shows no growth.
  • The graphs below looks at the year-over-year rate of growth for job opening levels and rate.

this month's graph

The relevance of JOLTS to future employment is obvious from the graphic below which shows JOLTS Job Openings leading or coincident to private non-farm employment. JOLTS job openings are a good predictor of jobs growth turning points - and have similar trend lines..

The graph below uses year-over year growth comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted non-farm private BLS data versus JOLTS Job Openings - and then compare trend lines.

Year-over-Year Change - Unadjusted Non-Farm Private Jobs Openings from JOLTS (blue line, left axis) compared to Unadjusted BLS Non-farm Private (red line, right axis)

  • The JOLTS Unadjusted Private hires rate (percent of hires compared to size of workforce) and the separations rate (percent of separations compared to size of workforce - separations are the workforce which quit or was laid off).

Unadjusted Hires (blue line) and Unadjusted Separation Levels (red line) - Non-Farm Private

Please note that Econintersect has not been able use the hire rate or the separation rate (or a combination thereof) to help in understanding future jobs growth. A Philly Fed study agrees with Econintersect's assessment. JOLTS is issued a month later than the jobs data - and correlates against one month old data.

For information, the Econintersect Employment Index and the Conference Board's Employment Index:

Comparing BLS Non-Farm Employment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)

employment_indices.png

Caveats on the Use of JOLTS

This data series historically is very noisy which likely is a result of data gathering issues and/or seasonal adjustments. Therefore this series must be trended to provide any understanding of the dynamics. One of two months of good or bad data are not predictive.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Is Free Trade Harming the Economy?
Bank of England Endorses Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Theory
News Blog
More Buck For The Chuck
More About What's Going On In Retail
Your Dog Has A Better Memory Than A Chimpanzee
Where Shadow Economies Are Well Established
What We Read Today 20 February 2017
Successful SpaceX Launch &amp; Landing Of Falcon 9 + Dragon CRS-10 Mission To The ISS (2017-02-19)
Investor Bulletin: Savings And Investing Basics For Military Personnel
Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?
Why Does Economic Growth Keep Slowing Down?
Houses As ATMs No Longer - Part Three Of Five
Infographic Of The Day: What It's Like To Live On Minimum Wage
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Up, Dollar, Oil Up, Gold Down, Investors Bet Higher Oil, Kraft-Unilever Deal Off, French Election Turmoil, Trump Worries Germans More Than Putin, Japan Imports Surge And More
Most Read Articles Last Week Ending 18 February
Investing Blog
Market And Sector Analysis 19 February 2017
Dollar Looks To Head Higher
Opinion Blog
Fascism Defined And Described By Oswald Mosley
Charity Is Not How We Solve Poverty
Precious Metals Blog
Deflation And Gold: A Contrarian View
Live Markets
20Feb2017 Pre-Market Commentary: US Markets Closed Today In Observance Of The Presidents Day Holiday, US Dollar Slips, European Stocks Rise
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved