econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 02 December 2016

Rail Week Ending 26 November 2016: Another Positive Week

Week 47 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Long term rolling averages remain in contraction - but the 4 week rolling average remains in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail over the last 6 months been declining around 5% - but this week was -2.3 %. This contraction is still concerning me as it is saying the economy (although getting better) is still not producing goods.

The contraction in rail counts began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data - and this is the cause periodic acceleration in the short term rolling averages. Still, rail is weak to very week compared to previous years.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average +0.9 % decelerating accelerating
13 week rolling average -2.6 % decelerating accelerating
52 week rolling average -6.4 % accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending November 26, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 452,759 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.6 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending November 26 were 229,866 carloads, down 0.4 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 222,893 containers and trailers, up 1.6 percent compared to 2015.

Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They included grain, up 20.2 percent to 22,438 carloads; metallic ores and metals, up 8.5 percent to 18,206 carloads; and miscellaneous carloads, up 7.8 percent to 7,461 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 23.2 percent to 9,150 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, down 15.3 percent to 12,773 carloads; and forest products, down 8.4 percent to 8,511 carloads.

For the first 47 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,848,889 carloads, down 9.2 percent from the same point last year; and 12,199,820 intermodal units, down 2.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2016 was 24,048,709 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 6 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 1.4 % higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015.

The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -0.4 % +1.6 % +0.6 %
Ignoring coal and grain -2.3 %
Year Cumulative to Date -9.2 % -2.6 % -6.0 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

For the week ended November 26, 2016

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.2 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 11.9% lower than last week's estimate and 1.4% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.6 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.5 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 672.7 mmst, 18.5% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015

Coal production from EIA.gov

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Democratic Development Lowers the Cost of Credit
Is Growing Household Debt An Economic Counter-Dynamic?
News Blog
Did The Dodd-Frank Act Make The Financial System Safer?
A Close Look At The Decline Of Homeownership - Part Five Of Five
Do Institutional Investors Chase Returns?
Infographic Of The Day: How To Survive A Deadly Snake Bite
Early Headlines: Global Mfg 1970-2010, No Refugee Spike, GOP Health Proposal Leak, GOP Town Halls, Trump's Debt Decrease, Macron Gains, China's $9 Trn Moral Hazard, Americans Oppose Wall And More
Premium Seats At Premium Events Equal Premium Prices
Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 27 February 2017
Time Crystals: How Scientists Created A New State Of Matter
Cost Of War Against ISIS Reaches 11 Billion Dollars
What We Read Today 25 February 2017
Candid Camera Classic: Dirty Clean Words
How Reliable Are GDP Consensus Forecasts?
What You Don't Know About Your Policy Can Hurt You... Financially
Investing Blog
Snapchat Is In The Money Burning Business
Technical Thoughts: How To Buy The Dips
Opinion Blog
Why Winning The French Presidential Election Could Be A Poisoned Chalice
Unintended Consequences Of Corporate Tax Incentives
Precious Metals Blog
Deflation And Gold: A Contrarian View
Live Markets
24Feb2017 Market Close: Wall Street Rose From Session Lows To Close In The Green Near The Unchanged Line, Short-Term Indicators And Analysts Questioning Continuing Bull Run
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved