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posted on 29 November 2016

November 2016 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Rebounds

Written by Doug Short / Jill Mislinski

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through November 15. The headline number of 107.1 was an increase from the final reading of 100.8 for October, an upward revision from 98.6. Today's number was above the Investing.comconsensus of 101.2.

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.

"Consumer confidence improved in November after a moderate decline in October, and is once again at pre-recession levels," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. (The Index stood at 111.9 in July 2007.) "A more favorable assessment of current conditions coupled with a more optimistic short-term outlook helped boost confidence. And while the majority of consumers were surveyed before the presidential election, it appears from the small sample of post-election responses that consumers' optimism was not impacted by the outcome. With the holiday season upon us, a more confident consumer should be welcome news for retailers."

Putting the Latest Number in Context

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Consumer Confidence

On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 77th percentile of all the monthly data points since June 1977, up from the 62nd percentile the previous month.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

Consumer Sentiment

And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis, although a bit of spread has appeared in the second half of 2015 and start of 2016.

NFIB Optimism and Consumer Confidence



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