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posted on 28 November 2016

November 2016 Texas Manufacturing Survey Continues to Expand

Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their November manufacturing surveys - all are in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

One must assume with surveys that change in values is relative to the previous month. This survey remained in positive territory but new orders and unfilled orders remain in contraction - and trend lines are down. This really is not that positive of a report.

From Bloomberg / Econoday - the consensus range for the general activity index was -0.6 to 3.0 (consensus 2.0), and the reported value was ---. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fifth consecutive positive reading and edged up to 8.8.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity showed mixed movements. The new orders and growth rate of ordersindexes posted their third consecutive negative readings in November but moved up, coming in at -1.4 and -0.8,respectively. The capacity utilization index rose three points to 3.6, while the shipments index dipped slightly negative to -1.9.

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved markedly this month. The general business activity index shot up to 10.2 after nearly two years of negative readings. The company outlook index also posted a large gain, increasing nine points to a reading of 11.0.

Labor market measures indicated increased employment levels and longer workweeks. The employment index came in at 4.5 after a near-zero reading last month. Seventeen percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 13 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index returned to positive territory in November, coming in at 2.5.

Prices and wages rose this month. Input cost increases accelerated slightly, with the raw materials prices index rising from 13.7 to 18.2. The finished goods prices index posted a second positive reading, climbing from 1.2 to 8.0, and indicates a likely end to the period of deflation in manufactured goods prices that began in 2015. Wages and benefits continued to rise, with the index edging up to 18.4.

Expectations regarding future business conditions improved notably in November. The index of future general business activity advanced 27 points to 31.6. The index of future company outlook also jumped up more than 20 points, coming in at 34.9. Other indexes for future manufacturing activity pushed markedly higher in to positive territory.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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