econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 10 November 2016

05 November 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Continue to Marginally Worsen

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 255 K to 265 K (consensus 263,000), and the Department of Labor reported 254,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 258,000 (reported last week as 257,750) to 259,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

The trend of the 4 week moving average is continuing to marginally worsened - and catch up to the rolling averages of a year ago - and this trend historically indicates a weakening GDP. This marks 88 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. It is pretty hard for unemployment claims to continue to fall much further - nothing declines forever.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 4.2 % lower (improvement from the 3.6 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2015.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line), 2016 (light blue)

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 257,750 to 258,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 88 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending October 29, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 29 was 2,041,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 2,026,000 to 2,023,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,039,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since July 1, 2000 when it was 2,036,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 2,042,500 to 2,041,750.

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Democratic Development Lowers the Cost of Credit
Is Growing Household Debt An Economic Counter-Dynamic?
News Blog
Durable Goods New Orders Improved in January 2017
China's Continuing Credit Boom
Infographic Of The Day: Ten Interview Questions That Make You Sound Dumb
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Down, Oil Up, Dollar And Gold Steady, UK Inflation, 'Moonlight' Wins Oscar, LSE Merger May Be Off, Greek Banks, India Going Green And More
Most Read Articles Last Week Ending 25 February
How British Businesses Helped The Confederacy Fight The American Civil War
Where You Can Surf A Lot For A Little In The EU
'I Can Live With Either One': Palestine, Israel And The Two-state Solution
Where Snapchat's Users Come From
What We Read Today 26 February 2017
INAUGURATION DAY: A Bad Lip Reading Of Donald Trump's Inauguration
Did The Dodd-Frank Act Make The Financial System Safer?
A Close Look At The Decline Of Homeownership - Part Five Of Five
Investing Blog
The Week Ahead: Reality And Stock Prices
Snapchat Still Has Some Growing Up To Do
Opinion Blog
What Do You Call A Lie Constructed From Other Lies?
Why Winning The French Presidential Election Could Be A Poisoned Chalice
Precious Metals Blog
Deflation And Gold: A Contrarian View
Live Markets
27Feb2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street To Open Down And Flat, Crude Prices Climb, US Dollar Steady, Trump's Speech Tomorrow Could End Market Rally
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved