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posted on 31 October 2016

October 2016 Texas Manufacturing Survey Declines But Remains In Contraction.

Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their October manufacturing surveys - two are in contraction and three are in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

One must assume with surveys that change in values is relative to the previous month. This survey remained in positive territory but new orders and unfilled orders remain in contraction. This really is not that positive of a report.

There no expectations from Bloomberg, and the reported value was 6.7. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity increased again in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fourth consecutive positive reading but moved down to 6.7. This suggests output grew but at a slower pace this month.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity showed mixed movements. The new orders and growth rate of ordersindexes posted second consecutive negative readings in October, holding fairly steady at -3.5 and -5.1, respectively. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes have been positive throughout the second half of the year so far but fell notably after spiking last month, coming in at 0.8 and 1.9. The capital expenditures index moved up to 8.7, reaching its highest reading in nearly two years.

Perceptions of broader business conditions remained mixed. The general business activity index has been negative for nearly two years, although it continued to push closer to positive territory in October, coming in at -1.5. The company outlook index posted a second positive reading in a row, but moved down 5 points to 1.8.

Labor market measures indicated flat employment levels and slightly shorter workweek length. The employment index came in at 0.2, suggesting little change in headcounts in October. The hours worked index edged down to -1.8.

Price and wages generally rose this month. Input costs continued to rise, with the raw materials prices index holding fairly steady at 13.7. Selling prices have been falling since December 2014 but stabilized in September and edged up in October, with the finished goods prices index coming in at 1.2. Wages and benefits continued to rise but at a slightly slower pace, with the index moving down from 21.0 to 16.4.

Expectations regarding future business conditions improved again in October. The index of future general business activityposted a fifth positive reading in a row, although it fell from 9.3 to 4.8, indicating slightly less optimism. The index of future company outlook also fell but remained positive, coming in at 12.2. Other indexes for future manufacturing activity pushed higher into positive territory.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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