econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 28 October 2016

21 October 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 31st week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their lagging and coincident indices this past week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. However, both indices' trend lines are now marginally declining indicating conditions 6 months from today might not be much better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Decreased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 138.6 from 139.6. The growth rate edged down to 8.0% from 9.2%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless"

- read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows a small decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.1 from an upwardly revised 112.7 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased in September to a 99-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to mount."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The Septembers economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth significantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Wasteful Health Care Spending
Democratic Development Lowers the Cost of Credit
News Blog
February 2017 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Up
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Again Improves In February 2017.
February 2017 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer At One Year High
Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index December 2016 Shows 5.6 % Year-over-Year Growth
Second Estimate 4Q2016 GDP Unchanged at 1.9 % - Under Expectations
Infographic Of The Day: Best Places In The World To Be A Doctor
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil, Gold, Dollar Little Changed, GOP ACA Divide, Trump Budget, UK Economy Concerns, France Inflation Slows, India Tax Reform, Oz Mortgage Leverage And More
February 27, 2017 Weather and Climate Report. Short-term Forecasting Not So Easy.
Explainer: What Is VX Nerve Agent And How Does It Work?
What's Important To The Online Shopper
How Liverpool's New Local Currency Fits Into Global Trends Of Money And Power
World's Largest B2C E-Commerce Markets
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 27 February 2017 Rose Over One Cent
Investing Blog
Market And Sector Analysis 26 February 2017
Trump's Address To Congress: A Preview For Investors
Opinion Blog
Brave New World: The Pill-popping, Social Media Obsessed Dystopia We Live In
What Do You Call A Lie Constructed From Other Lies?
Precious Metals Blog
Deflation And Gold: A Contrarian View
Live Markets
28Feb2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Down, Flat And Muted Before Opening, Crude Prices Slipping Sharply, US Dollar Mostly Unchanged And Investors Await Trump's Speech To Congress Tonight
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved