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posted on 28 October 2016

21 October 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 31st week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their lagging and coincident indices this past week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. However, both indices' trend lines are now marginally declining indicating conditions 6 months from today might not be much better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Decreased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 138.6 from 139.6. The growth rate edged down to 8.0% from 9.2%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Early" and "Late" Cycle Verdicts are Baseless"

- read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows a small decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.1 from an upwardly revised 112.7 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased in September to a 99-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to mount."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The Septembers economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth significantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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