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posted on 07 October 2016

30 September 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Essentially Unchanged

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 28th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI has released their inflation index this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. However, both indices' trend lines are plateauing which indicates economic growth six months from today may not be much better than it is today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Increased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 139.2 from 139.0. The growth rate ticked down to 8.7% from 8.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"

- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The August index value (issued in September) shows an insignificant decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 113.1 from an upwardly revised 112.7 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased in September to a 99-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to mount."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth insignificantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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