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posted on 30 September 2016

23 September 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Unchanged

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was unchanged and remains in positive territory for the 27th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. However, both indices' trend lines are plateauing which indicates economic growth six months from today may not be much better than it is today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Edged Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 139.0 from 138.9. The growth rate was virtually unchanged at 8.8%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Fed Hold No Surprise"

- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The August index value (issued in September) shows an insignificant decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 113.0 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG slipped in August, while staying near July's 97-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, inflation pressures remain in a cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth insignificantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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