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posted on 23 September 2016

15 September 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Insignificantly Improves

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward insignificantly improved and remains in positive territory for the 26th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar index. Also, this week ECRI has released new coincident and lagging indicator data.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Decreased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 138.9 from 139.6. The growth rate ticked up to 8.8% from 8.7%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Seeking Alpha "Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession"

- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's radio interview on Bloomberg podcast.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The August index value (issued in September) shows an insignificant decline in the rate of economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 113.0 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG slipped in August, while staying near July's 97-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, inflation pressures remain in a cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth insignificantly declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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