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posted on 16 September 2016

09 September 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improves

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved and remains in positive territory for the 25th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 139.6 from 138.9. The growth rate edged up to 8.7% from 8.3%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "The Brecession Blunder"

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The July index value (issued in August) shows an insignificant improvement in economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 113.0 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG slipped in August, while staying near July's 97-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, inflation pressures remain in a cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth insignificantly improved..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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