econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 16 September 2016

Rail Week Ending 10 September 2016: Rolling Averages Generally Weaker

Week 36 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. This week, most rolling averages' were decelerating.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail is declining a around 5% (this week 4.9%). Under normal circumstances one should consider this recessionary as trucking tonnages are down also. This illustrates the dangers of using one one sector to gauge the economy - but it does say that a major dynamic change has occurred in the economy that has caused a significant decline in shipping volumes.

The contraction in rail counts began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data - and this is the cause periodic acceleration in the short term rolling averages. Still, rail is weak to very week compared to previous years.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.8 % decelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -5.6 % decelerating accelerating
52 week rolling average -7.1 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending September 10, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 482,894 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.4 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending September 10 were 252,627 carloads, down 6 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 230,267 containers and trailers, down 4.8 percent compared to 2015.

Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They were grain, up 26.3 percent to 22,599 carloads; miscellaneous carloads, up 16.1 percent to 8,593 carloads; and nonmetallic minerals, up 2 percent to 35,407 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 26.5 percent to 10,452 carloads; coal, down 15.7 percent to 87,058 carloads; and metallic ores and metals, down 4.5 percent to 19,644 carloads.

For the first 36 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,921,199 carloads, down 11 percent from the same point last year; and 9,272,945 intermodal units, down 3.1 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 36 weeks of 2016 was 18,194,144 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 7.1 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 14.5% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015.

The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -6.0 % -4.8 % -5.4 %
Ignoring coal and grain -4.9 %
Year Cumulative to Date -11.0 % -3.1 % -7.1 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

For the week ended September 10, 2016

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.1 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 6.2% lower than last week's estimate and 14.5% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.5 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9.6 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 485.1 mmst, 24% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015

Coal production from EIA.gov

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Slow Economic Growth Will Be Around For A Long Time
The Job Guarantee, Wage-Price Inflation And Alternative Solutions: Part 2
News Blog
NASA Precise Landing Technologies Tested On Vertical Testbed Rocket
March 2017 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Again Improves In March 2017.
Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index January 2017 Shows 5.7 % Year-over-Year Growth
A Changing Rulebook To Tame The New Global Arms Race
Infographic Of The Day: Chart: Understanding Alphabet's 4 Billion Dollar In "Other Bets"
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks And Dollar Up, Oil, Gold Steady, Obama Climate Policies Gone, US Oil Glut, Euro Surges, Shorts Remain, Trump Into Yemen?, Iran-Russia Deals, Cat 4 Cyclone Hits Oz, And More
March 27, 2017 Weather and Climate Report - Will the MJO Deliver a Nino?
The Most Reputable Companies Worldwide
Gut Bacteria Play A Role In Long-term Weight Gain
What We Read Today 27 March 2017 - Special Public Edition
Is Less More In The Smartphone Market
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 27 March 2017 Statistically Unchanged - Again
Investing Blog
The Dollar's Coming Impact On Markets
The Real 401k Plan Manager 27 March 2017
Opinion Blog
Macron May Lead But Le Pen Remains The Big Story
Is The 20th Century Still The 'Hayek Century'?
Precious Metals Blog
These Gold Stocks Will Produce Much Bigger Gains Than Gold Itself
Live Markets
28Mar2017 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Eyes A Lower Opening, Crude Prices Edge Higher, Investors Await Fed Members Clues On Timing Of Next Rate Hike
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved