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posted on 02 September 2016

26 August 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Unchanged.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was unchanged but remains in positive territory for the 23rd week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar index. Also, ECRI released their August inflation index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 138.4 from 138.1. The growth rate remains unchanged at 8.1%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Amid Structural Lowflation, World Exports Decline"

- read ECRI's "Food Price Deflation to Let Up"

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The July index value (issued in August) shows an insignificant improvement in economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Declined in August

U.S. inflationary pressures were down in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge declined to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 113.0 reading in July, first reported as 112.6, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG slipped in August, while staying near July's 97-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, inflation pressures remain in a cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth insignificantly improved..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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