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posted on 26 August 2016

19 August 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Declines Slightly

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally declined but remains in positive territory for the 22nd week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar index.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 138.1 from 137.8. The growth rate edged down to 8.1% from 8.4%.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The July index value (issued in August) shows an insignificant improvement in economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 112.6 from an unrevised 111.4 reading in June, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG rose again to a 97-month high in July," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, cyclical inflation pressures are increasing inexorably."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July's economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth insignificantly improved..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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