econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 26 August 2016

Rail Week Ending 20 August 2016: Remains In Contraction And Rate Of Improvement Slows

Week 33 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The 13 week rolling averages' contraction continues to moderate - but the 4 week and 52 week rolling average contraction worsened.

The contraction began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data - and this is the cause some acceleration in the short term rolling averages. Still, rail is weak to very week compared to previous years.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.3 % unchanged decelerating
13 week rolling average -6.1 % accelerating accelerating
52 week rolling average -6.8 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending August 20, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 531,484 carloads and intermodal units, down 6.4 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending August 20 were 270,464 carloads, down 6.4 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 261,020 containers and trailers, down 6.4 percent compared to 2015.

Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They included grain, up 36.5 percent to 24,944 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 4.9 percent to 18,974 carloads; and miscellaneous carloads, up 4.8 percent to 10,558 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included petroleum and petroleum products, down 24.2 percent to 10,933 carloads; coal, down 16.6 percent to 89,599 carloads; and forest products, down 14.3 percent to 9,869 carloads.

For the first 33 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,126,642 carloads, down 11.4 percent from the same point last year; and 8,506,957 intermodal units, down 3 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 33 weeks of 2016 was 16,633,599 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to last year.

North American rail volume for the week ending August 20, 2016, on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 356,785 carloads, down 6.3 percent compared with the same week last year, and 335,584 intermodal units, down 5.5 percent compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 692,369 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.9 percent. North American rail volume for the first 33 weeks of 2016 was 21,751,535 carloads and intermodal units, down 7.1 percent compared with 2015.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 15.3 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -6.4 % -6.4 % -6.4 %
Ignoring coal and grain -6.8 %
Year Cumulative to Date -11.4 % -3.0 % -7.3 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

For the week ended August 20, 2016

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 16 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 0.7% higher than last week's estimate and 15.3% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.8 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 10.1 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 437.6 mmst, 24.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015

Coal production from EIA.gov

Steven Hansen



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Minsky’s Theory of Asset Prices: Why Minsky Was NOT a Neo-Monetarist
Finance and Growth: The Direction of Causality
News Blog
Who's Smoking In The U.S.
Six Cosmic Catastrophes That Could Wipe Out Life On Earth
What We Read Today 20 January 2017
THE FABULOUS FIFTIES
13 January 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Insignificantly Improves
Rail Week Ending 14 January 2017: Some Improvement
Majority Of Job Seekers Uncertain About Trump Impact
How To "Buy Low And Sell High" Like A Pro
Infographic Of The Day: Unusual Pets
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil Up, Dollar Down, China GDP On Target, GOP Govs Defend Medicaid Expans., Trump Wants To Cut Fed. Spending By $ 1 Trn, Trump's Troubling Foreign Deals And More
The Fake News That Sealed The Fate Of Antony And Cleopatra
The Jobs With The Biggest Cash Bonuses
Astronomers Spot Strange, Bow-like Structure In Venus' Atmosphere
Investing Blog
Can 'Switch' Replicate Nintendo's Past Success
Investing.com Weekly Wrap-Up 20 January 2017
Opinion Blog
How To Read Theresa May's Brexit Speech
What Is The Natural Interest Rate - And What If We Go Above It?
Precious Metals Blog
Four Catalysts Drive Gold And Silver For 2017
Live Markets
20Jan2017 Market Close: U.S. Stocks Were Up But Off Their Highs Of The Session, Crude Prices Continue To Climb, Next Week May Be Volatile
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved