posted on 25 August 2016
July 2015 Philly Fed Coincident Index Rate of Year-over-Year Rate Of Growth Insignificantly Ticks Up
The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index marginally improved relative to last month's revised level. A comparison of this US Coincident Index with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board Coincident Index, ECRI's Coincident Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index follows.
Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool.
Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index
[click graph below to enlarge]
z philly coincident.PNG
In the graph below, the blue line shows the year-over-year growth rate of the US Concident Index, while the darker blue line shows the month-over-month change. The year-over-year trend is down.
The Philly Fed produces this real time coincident indictor report based on six underlying indicators:
Per the Philly Fed:
Conference Board's Coincident Index (red line):
ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index):
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
Generally the coincident indices are showing slowing or stable but weak growth: Nothing here is a surprise. Econintersect's analysis of the coincident indices is that:
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