econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 11 August 2016

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Moderated Again in July 2016.

Written by Steven Hansen

Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year - although the rate of deflation again declined this month.

Import Oil prices were down 2.5 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices down 0.4 %.

  • with import prices up 0.1 % month-over-month, down 3.7 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 0.2 % month-over-month, down 3.0 % year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change 0.2 % to 1.0 % -0.4 % +0.1 %
Export Prices - M/M change none --- % +0.2 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: U.S. import prices continued to advance in July, ticking up 0.1 percent. Prices for imports have not recorded a monthly decrease over the past 5 months and increased 3.0 percent since last declining in February. Prior to July, the increases were driven by rising fuel prices. In contrast, in July, nonfuel prices led the advance and fuel prices recorded a decrease. Despite the recent increases, import prices remain down on an over-the-year basis, falling 3.7 percent over the past 12 months. Import prices have not recorded a 12- month advance since 2 years ago when the index rose 0.9 percent between July 2013 and July 2014.

All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.2 percent in July, after rising 2.4 percent over the 3 previous months. In July, higher nonagricultural prices more than offset a decrease in agricultural prices. The price index for exports last recorded a 1-month decline when the index edged down 0.1 percent in March. Even accounting for the recent advances, export prices declined 3.0 percent over the past 12 months and have not increased on an over-the-year basis since the index advanced 0.4 percent in August 2014.

How moderate the price "increases" have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Joan Robinson’s Critique of Marginal Utility Theory
The Truth About Trade Agreements - and Why We Need Them
News Blog
Where U.S. Weekly Wages Go The Furthest
What We Read Today 09 December 2016
How To Stop Using Filler Words Like Um And Uh
02 December 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues
Preliminary December 2016 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest Since Early 2015
October 2016 Wholesale Sales Improved
Rail Week Ending 03 December 2016: Finally A Positive Month
November 2016 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Total Receipts Up by 1 Percent in the First Two Months of Fiscal Year 2017
Infographic Of The Day: Copyright - Illegal Download
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil Steady, Bank Mafia, Trump To Remain TV Producer, US Life Expectancy Down, India Stocks Suffering, Park Impeached, China Struggles To Support Yuan And More
Heavy Metal And Hard Rock Albums That Went Certified Diamond Status
Down The Drain: Wastewater With The Most Cocaine
Apple's App Store Set For 5 Million Apps By 2020
Investing Blog
Investing,com Weekly Wrap-up 09 December 2016
Are Your Trade Entries Patient Enough?
Opinion Blog
Looking At Everything: Trump's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan
The Global Financial Mess Is Due To Political Failure
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
09Dec2016 Market Close: Wall Street Closes On A New High, Trump Sugar High, Crude Prices Testing Resistance, US Dollar Melts Higher
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved