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posted on 05 August 2016

29 July 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues To Improve

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was improved and remains in positive territory for the 19th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI's inflation index is now at at 97 month high.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slips to 137.6 from 138.0. The growth rate edges up to 8.2% from 8.0%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore."

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 112.6 from an unrevised 111.4 reading in June, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG rose again to a 97-month high in July," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, cyclical inflation pressures are increasing inexorably."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June's economy's rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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