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posted on 02 August 2016

June 2016 CoreLogic Home Prices Year-over-Year Growth Rate Now Slowed to 5.7%.

CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA are up 5.7 % year-over-year year-over-year (reported up 1.1 % month-over-month). Last month's 5.9 % year-over-year gain was revised downward to 5.3 % [revisions to previous months lately have been slightly to significantly downward so I would not take the 5.7 % to the bank]. CoreLogic HPI is used in the Federal Reserves's Flow of Funds to calculate the values of residential real estate.

Dr Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic stated:

Mortgage rates dipped in June to their lowest level in more than three years, supporting home purchases. Local markets with strong economic growth have generally had stronger home-price growth. Among large metropolitan areas, Denver had the lowest unemployment rate and the strongest home-price appreciation.

z corelogic2.PNG

Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic stated:

Home prices continue to increase across the country, especially in the lower price ranges and in a number of metro areas. We see prices continuing to increase at a healthy rate over the next year by as much as 5 percent.

Comparison of Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue line, left axis), CoreLogic (green line, left axis) and National Association of Realtors (red line, right axis)

z existing3.PNG

The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change - and not necessarily whether the prices are getting better or worse. Home price rate of growth is now marginally improving.

Year-over-Year Price Change Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue bar), CoreLogic (yellow bar) and National Association of Realtors (red bar)

z existing5.PNG

Caveats Relating to Home Price Indices

There is no such thing as an "accurate" home price index. CoreLogic HPI is a repeat sales type index which should not be skewed by changes in the mix of home sales. For more information, please read: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-price-indexes.pdf

Steven Hansen

Source: CoreLogic



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