The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg) were 260,000 to 265,000 (consensus 264,000), and the Department of Labor reported 266,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 257,500 (reported last week as 257,750) to 256,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 6.8 % lower (marginal degradation from the 7.3 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2015.
Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 266,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 253,000 to 252,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 257,750 to 257,500. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 73 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.6 percent for the week ending July 16, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 16 was 2,139,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 4,000 from 2,128,000 to 2,132,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,135,250, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since November 11, 2000 when it was 2,119,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 2,141,250 to 2,142,250.
Econintersect wants your comments,
data and opinion on the articles posted. As the internet is a
"war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its
defences against ease of commenting. We have joined with Livefyre
to manage our comment streams.
To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of
the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your
favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or
Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.
You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.
Econintersect Economic Releases
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.
Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com