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posted on 26 July 2016

July 2016 Chemical Activity Barometer Signaling Improved Economic Growth

from the American Chemistry Council

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) expanded 0.4 percent in July following a revised 0.7 percent increase in June, 0.8 percent increase in May and 0.6 percent increase in April. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA).

Accounting for adjustments, the CAB remains up 2.6 percent over this time last year, an improvement over prior months. On an unadjusted basis the CAB jumped 0.6 percent in July, following a 0.2 percent gain in June.

Stated ACC's Chief Economist Kevin Swift:

The CAB is signaling higher U.S. business activity into 2017 and that recent unpleasantness in the goods economy may be approaching its end.

The Chemical Activity Barometer has four primary components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In July, all four categories for the CAB improved for the fourth month in a row. Production-related indicators were positive, with trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry being mixed, and plastic resins used in packaging and other consumer and institutional applications largely showed improvement. Equity prices surged in July, joined by product prices gaining. Inventories and other downstream indicators were positive.

z chemical_activity_barometer.png

Caveats on the Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB):

The definition of the CAB:

Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy's business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a longer lead (or perform better) than the National Bureau of Economic Research, by two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2007 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index.

This index is a mixture of monetary / non-monetary elements with an analysis methodology which is not transparent - and does include some non-chemical industry elements such as the ISM manufacturing index and residential building permits. The composition and concept of the CAB according to the authors:

The CAB comprises indicators relating to the production of chlorine and other alkalies, pigments, plastic resins and other selected basic industrial chemicals; chemical company stock data; hours worked in chemicals; publicly sourced, chemical price information; end-use (or customer) industry sales-to-inventories; and several broader leading economic measures (building permits and new orders). Each month, ACC provides a barometer number, which reflects activity data for the current month, as well as a three-month moving average. The CAB was developed by the economics department at the American Chemistry Council.

The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy's business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a longer lead (or perform better) than the National Bureau of Economic Research, by two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2007 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index.

As this is a relatively new leading index, our biggest concern is backward revision (which degrades real time accuracy). Thankfully (providently?) backward revisions have been relatively small to date.

No single economic forecasting index has proven to have all the answers, as the reason the economy recesses is a combination of changing dynamics. Econintersect will continue to review this leading index and others as part of our monthly economic forecast.


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