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posted on 22 July 2016

15 July 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improved

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was improved and remains in positive territory for the 17th week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI has released their coincident and lagging indices and is reported below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 138.1 from 137.0. The growth rate rose to 7.5% from 6.9%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors."

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Grows in June

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 111.4 from a revised 110.5 reading in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG rose again to an eight-year high in June," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are mounting steadily."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June's economy's rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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