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posted on 14 July 2016

Rail Week Ending 09 July 2016: Rail Decline Affected By A Mismatch Of Holiday Weeks. Still Contraction Trend Is Moderating.

Week 27 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The short term rolling average's contraction continues to moderate - but this comparision is affected by the 4th of July being in a different week last year (was in week number 27 in 2015 and week 26 in 2016).

The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average -5.9 % decelerating decelerating
13 week rolling average -8.4 % decelerating decelerating
52 week rolling average -6.3 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending July 9, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 442,113 carloads and intermodal units, down 17.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending July 9 were 226,615 carloads, down 16.5 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 215,498 containers and trailers, down 17.9 percent compared to 2015.

Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 12.2 percent to 9,283 carloads; and grain, up 12 percent to 20,746 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included coal, down 23.4 percent to 72,998 carloads; nonmetallic minerals, down 20.9 percent to 29,069 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 19 percent to 10,432 carloads and motor vehicles and parts, also down 19 percent to 12,399 carloads.

For the first 27 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 6,521,831 carloads, down 12.5 percent from the same point last year; and 6,928,501 intermodal units, down 2.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 27 weeks of 2016 was 13,450,332 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 7.7 percent compared to last year.

Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week is 1.3 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015. The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.

This Week Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year -16.5 % -17.9 % -17.2 %
Ignoring coal and grain -14.7 %
Year Cumulative to Date -12.5 % -2.7 % -7.7 %

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart:

z rail1.png

For the week ended July 2, 2016

  • Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 14.1 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 3% higher than last week's estimate and 1.3% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
  • East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 5.4 mmst
  • West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 8.7 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 330.7 mmst, 27.4% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015

Coal production from EIA.gov

Steven Hansen



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