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posted on 08 July 2016

01 July 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Marginally Declines.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was declined marginally but remains in positive territory for the fifteenth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI released their inflation index which is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 136.7 from 136.3. The growth rate decreased to 6.8% from 7.2%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters Insider TV.

- read ECRI's "Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors."

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The May number (issued in June) shows slightly slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Grows in June

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 111.4 from a revised 110.5 reading in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG rose again to an eight-year high in June," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are mounting steadily."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May's economy's rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth was improving.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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