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posted on 01 July 2016

24 June 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Marginally Improves.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward was grew marginally and remains in positive territory for the fourteenth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) remained unchanged at 136.4. The growth rate ticked up to 7.2% from 7.1%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Reuters Insider TV.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't."

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The May number (issued in June) shows slightly slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

Future Inflation Gauge at 94-mo High

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 110.1 from a 108.1 reading in April, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased again in May to a 94-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still on the rise."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May's economy's rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth was improving.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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