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posted on 17 June 2016

10 June 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Marginally Improves

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward expanded again marginally and remains in positive territory for the twelfth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edged Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged down to 136.5 from 137.4. The growth rate increased to 7.1% from 6.7%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interview on Reuters Insider TV.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn't."

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The May number (issued in June) shows slightly slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

Future Inflation Gauge at 94-mo High

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 110.1 from a 108.1 reading in April, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased again in May to a 94-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still on the rise."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March's economy's rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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