econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 14 June 2016

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Moderated in May 2016.

Written by Steven Hansen

Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year - although the rate of deflation again declined this month.

Import Oil prices were up 16.2 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices increased 2.9 %.

  • with import prices up 1.4 % month-over-month, down 5.0 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 1.1 % month-over-month, down 4.5 % year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change 0.2 % to 1.4 % +0.8 % +1.4 %
Export Prices - M/M change 0.1 % to 0.4 % +0.2 % +1.1 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices rose for the third consecutive month in May, rising 1.4 percent, after recording 0.7-percent and 0.4-percent increases in April and March. The May advance was the largest monthly rise since the index increased 1.4 percent in March 2012. The last 1-month gain larger than 1.4 percent was a 2.6-percent advance in April 2011. Despite the recent increases, import prices declined 5.0 percent over the past 12 months, driven by decreases over the second half of 2015 and the first 2 months of 2016.

All Exports: U.S. export prices rose 1.1 percent in May, following a 0.5-percent advance the previous month. Higher agricultural prices and nonagricultural prices both contributed to the May and April increases. The May advance in export prices was the largest monthly rise since the index increased 1.5 percent in March 2011. Overall export prices continued to decrease on a 12-month basis, although the 4.5- percent drop between May 2015 and May 2016 was the smallest over-the-year decrease since the index fell 3.0 percent for the year ended in December 2014.

How moderate the price "increases" have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.



>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
The Job Guarantee, Wage-Price Inflation And Alternative Solutions: Part 2
The Job Guarantee, Wage-Price Inflation And Alternative Solutions: Part 1
News Blog
What We Read Today 16 March 2017 - Special Public Edition
Hate Groups In The U.S. Are Flourishing
What We Read Today 23 March 2017
March 2017 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing At Highest Level Since March 2011
February 2017 Headline New Home Sales Improve and Above Expectations
18 March 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Worsens
Get Around Baggage Check Fees With This Luggage Jacket
What Prompted The Electronic Devices Ban
Infographic Of The Day: The History Of Money Explained In One Infographic
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mixed, Oil, Dollar Up, Gold Down, Health Care Bill Fighting For Life, UK Car Mfg Hits 17-Yr High, UBS Charges 0.6% Int. On Deposits, China Debt Risks And More
Documentary Of The Week: Lee Harvey Oswald And The Call To Raleigh
Dallas 'Dirkules' Goes Past 30,000 Points
Number Of Migrant Deaths 2016 Highest Ever Recorded
Investing Blog
Investing.com Technical Summary 23 March 2017
Brother, Can You Spare A Bitcoin?
Opinion Blog
A New Agenda Will Win In France
After 75 Years, Isaac Asimov's Three Laws Of Robotics Need Updating
Precious Metals Blog
These Gold Stocks Will Produce Much Bigger Gains Than Gold Itself
Live Markets
23Mar2017 Market Close: Stocks Reversed Lower After GOP Health Worsened, Gold And Oil Followed Stocks But Dollar Rallied
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government































 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved