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posted on 09 June 2016

04 June 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Improve

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg) were 262,000 to 285,000 (consensus 270,000), and the Department of Labor reported 264,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 277,000 (reported last week as 276,750) to 269,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 3.0 % lower (better than the 0.0 % for last week) than they were in this same week in 2015.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line). 2015 (violet line), 2016 (light blue)

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 267,000 to 268,000. The 4-week moving average was 269,500, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 276,750 to 277,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 66 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 28 was 2,095,000, a decrease of 77,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 2,172,000. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since October 21, 2000 when it was 2,082,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,145,000, a decrease of 17,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 2,162,500.

Steven Hansen



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