posted on 06 June 2016
Written by Steven Hansen
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months declined and its authors state " its recent decline is not nearly as large as those that have preceded past employment contractions."
Econintersect is forecasting a lower jobs growth rate six months from now. Note that the Econintersect Employment Index is not based on employment data.
From the Conference Board:
To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.
Comparing BLS Non-Farm Employment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)
The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 5 months. Note that the Conference Board is currently projecting a declining growth rate and the Econintersect index is also showing a declining rate of growth.
Caveats on the Employment Trends Index
According to the Conference Board:
Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.
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