FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 06 June 2016

May 2016 Conference Board Employment Index Six-Month Growth Rate Now in Negative Territory

Written by Steven Hansen

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index - which forecasts employment for the next 6 months declined and its authors state " its recent decline is not nearly as large as those that have preceded past employment contractions."

Econintersect is forecasting a lower jobs growth rate six months from now. Note that the Econintersect Employment Index is not based on employment data.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in May, after rebounding in April. The index now stands at 126.81, down from an upwardly revised 128.53 in April. The change represents a modest 0.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index decreased in May. Its continued weakness suggests that job growth will remain modest in the coming months," said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. "Despite softening in the ETI, its recent decline is not nearly as large as those that have preceded past employment contractions."

May's decrease in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from six out of eight components. In order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and Job Openings.


To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersect uses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.

Comparing BLS Non-Farm Employment YoY Improvement (blue line, left axis) with Econintersect Employment Index YoY Improvement (red line, left axis) and The Conference Board ETI YoY Improvement (yellow line, right axis)


The graph above offsets the Conference Board ETI by 5 months. Note that the Conference Board is currently projecting a declining growth rate and the Econintersect index is also showing a declining rate of growth.

Caveats on the Employment Trends Index

According to the Conference Board:

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Unfortunately many of these indices are not accurate in real time being subject to at times significant backward revision.

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.

You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Economic Releases


Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Take a look at what is going on inside of
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Comments on Feyerabend’s ‘Against Method’, Part III
Federal Repression System
News Blog
Schiaparelli's Descent To Mars In Real Time
September 2016 Existing Home Sales Still Not Excellent
September 2016 Leading Economic Index Improves Indicating Moderate Growth Ahead.
October 2016 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Declines But Remains In Expansion.
15 October 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Marginally Worsen
Infographic Of The Day: Real Estate Bubbles, The Six Cities At Risk Of Bursting
Tesla Is Playing The Long Game
Name Dropping, Clinton Likes To Mention Herself
The Ability To Enforce Mandatory Migrant Quotas Is Slipping Out Of The EU's Grasp
2016 Winners And Losers Against The Dollar
October 2016 Beige Book: Reading Between The Lines - The Rate Of Economic Expansion Marginally Improved
Clinton Vs. Trump: A Case Of The Lesser Of Two Evils
Inside The Post Office Railway
Investing Blog
The 401k Plan Manager 17 October 2016
How To Insure Your Stocks And Make The Stock Market Pay For It
Opinion Blog
Prop. 51 Versus A State-Owned Bank: How California Can Save $10 Billion On A $9 Billion Loan
Obama's Middle East Policy Has Been A Complete Failure - Or Has It?
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Today Remain Volatile - What To Expect Now
Live Markets
20Oct2016 Market Close: US Indexes End Flat After Choppy Session, Nigeria Slashes Oil Prices, Crude Prices Continue To Slip, Bullish Investors Not So Bullish Anymore
Amazon Books & More

.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

Crowdfunding ....



Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved