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posted on 03 June 2016

27 May 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Marginally Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward expanded marginally and remains in positive territory for the tenth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released their inflation guage this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 135.8 from 136.1. The growth rate ticked down to 5.9% from 6.1%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interview with Tom Keene at Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Rate Hike "Cycle" Remains Unlikely".

See the longer term U.S. WLI chart for recent moves in context:

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The April number (issued in May) shows slightly improved economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

Future Inflation Gauge at 94-mo High

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 110.1 from a 108.1 reading in April, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG increased again in May to a 94-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still on the rise."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March's economy's rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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