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posted on 26 May 2016

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Contraction Continues in May 2016

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for May, all are in contraction.

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was -5. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined modestly.

"Regional factory activity continued to drift down in May, as weakness in energy and agriculture-related manufacturing persisted," said Wilkerson. "Still, firms expect a modest pickup in activity later this year."

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly, while producers' expectations for future activity remained slightly positive. Most raw material price indexes rose moderately in May, but selling prices fell slightly

The month-over-month composite index was -5 in May, which is largely unchanged from April and March readings. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Nondurable goods production slowed, particularly for food, chemical, and plastics production. On the other hand, durable goods production improved slightly but remained at low levels. Most month-over-month indexes were stable from the previous month. The production index fell from -8 to -11, while the shipments, news orders, employment and order backlog indexes were stable at low levels. The new orders for exports index decreased from -4 to -8. The raw materials inventory index eased from 0 to -3, while the finished goods inventory index was basically unchanged.

Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed, but generally remained weak. The composite year-over-year index was unchanged at -19, while the production, shipments, and order backlog indexes fell moderately. The new orders index improved slightly from -26 to -24, and the capital expenditures index also edged higher. The new orders for exports index moved up from -19 to -15, and both inventory indexes increased modestly

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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