ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward advanced higher in positive territory for the sixth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released their inflation gauge this week.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:
Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 135.7 from 135.5. The growth rate rose to 5.4% from 4.5%.
The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent - the three P's - to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The March number (issued in April) shows slower economic growth.
The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 169.8 in March from 169.9. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI's USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has slipped to 2.16%, a 27-month low.
Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) - contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed - ECRI's leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 93-month High
U.S. inflationary pressures were up in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from a downwardly revised 107.6 reading in March, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
The March reading was first reported as 107.8.
"The USFIG rose again in April to a 93-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures continue to climb."
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March's economy's rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth was flat.
Econintersect wants your comments,
data and opinion on the articles posted. As the internet is a
"war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its
defences against ease of commenting. We have joined with Livefyre
to manage our comment streams.
To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of
the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your
favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or
Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.
You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.
Econintersect Economic Releases
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.
Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com