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posted on 29 April 2016

22 April 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues Its Relatively Rapid Advance In Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward advanced higher in positive territory for the fifth week - after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 135.5 from 135.2. The growth rate increases to 4.5% from 3.5%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute's 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides.

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interviews with Simon Constable at Forbes':Recession Fears Still Overblown, U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite' and What The Fed Can Learn From Carl Sagan

- read Stalling or Falling?

- read The Fiscal Equivalent of War

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The March number (issued in April) shows slower economic growth.

The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 169.8 in March from 169.9. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI's USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has slipped to 2.16%, a 27-month low.

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) - contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed - ECRI's leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rose

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from an upwardly revised 107.0 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The February reading was first reported as 105.1.

"The USFIG rose further in March to its highest reading since the summer of 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are in a clear cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March's economy's rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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