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posted on 28 April 2016

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Contraction Lessens in April 2016

Of the five regional manufacturing surveys released for April, three are in expansion and two are in contraction.

There were no market expectations reported from Bloomberg - and the reported value was ----. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the April Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined modestly.

"Factories reported a modest decline in activity in April, but expectations for future activity increased to their highest reading of the year," said Wilkerson

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly, while producers' expectations for future activity improved considerably. Most price indexes moved slightly higher in April, but remained at low levels. The month-over-month composite index was -4 in April, up from -6 in March and -12 in February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slight improvement in the index came from a rise in nondurable goods production, particularly for food, paper, and plastics products. Durable goods production such as metals and machinery remained negative. Most month-over-month indexes rose somewhat from the previous month.

The production, shipments, and new orders for exports indexes improved slightly but remained in negative territory. In contrast, the new orders and employment indexes were negative but unchanged and the order backlog index fell from -15 to -18. The raw materials inventory edged up from -2 to 0, while the finished goods inventory index fell. Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed, but generally remained weak. The composite year-over-year index was basically unchanged at -19, while the production and shipments indexes showed slight improvements. The new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes all fell further into negative territory.

The capital expenditures index was basically unchanged at its lowest level since December 2009. Both inventory indexes declined after rebounding last month. Most future factory indexes improved markedly in April. The future composite index jumped from -2 to 10, its highest level in over a year, and the future production, shipments, and new orders indexes also rebounded strongly. The future order backlog index rose from -10 to -1, and the future employment index posted its highest level in five months. The future capital expenditures index inched higher from -9 to -6, and the future new orders for exports index moved into positive territory. The future raw materials inventory index increased from -13 to -5, while the future finished goods inventory index moved slightly lower.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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