econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 19 April 2016

March 2016 Thumbtack Small Business Sentiment Improved Again, Favors Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for President

from Thumbtack

-- this post authored by Lucas Puente

America's skilled professionals are heading into April in a very positive mood. Based on a national survey of nearly 15,000 respondents, from plumbers to photographers, this group of American small business owner-operators is in better spirits than any point since April of 2015.

In fact, this month's Small Business Economic Sentiment Index score of 66.42 is the third highest score since we started collecting data in the fourth quarter of 2012.

When asked "Which presidential candidate do you support?" results were as follows:

candidate

Among the voters we heard from, 20 percent support Bernie Sanders, 15 percent support Donald Trump, 13 percent support Hillary Clinton, 6 percent support Ted Cruz and 3 percent support John Kasich.

In New York state, skilled professionals were even more supportive of Senator Sanders:

NY_candidate

Among the decided voters in this community, Bernie Sanders was the favorite by 44 percent, followed by 25 percent for Hillary Clinton and 24 percent for Donald Trump.

Although the two remaining Democratic candidates had far more support from the skilled professionals we heard from, this is not because this group is overwhelmingly left-leaning. In fact, the share of our respondents that identified as being in one of the three conservative typologies (27.9 percent) is almost identical to the share of those identifying in one of the liberal groups (28.3 percent).

Ideology

A more salient explanation for the different levels of current support for the two parties' candidates is that more than a third of self-identified conservatives remain undecided. This is particularly true among skilled professionals identifying as leaning "slightly conservative," with 46 percent of this group not yet attached to a candidate.

Far fewer liberals are undecided as to their choice, with only 24 percent not yet stating a preference for one of the remaining candidates. Still, these differences in decided voters don't entirely explain Senator Sander's first place position among skilled professionals. Illustrating this, among the election's most pivotal group — moderates — Bernie Sanders again finishes in first, taking 17.7 percent to Hillary Clinton's 13.1 percent and Donald Trump's 12.5 percent.

Like more and more Americans, this ideologically-balanced set of skilled professionals is also supportive of an increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour.

min_wage_1

Our results show that this support is partly out of self-interest. That is, the share of skilled professionals reporting that they would directly benefit from this change is greater than the share that say that they would be directly harmed. More than a third of skilled professionals think a $15 per hour minimum wage would increase demand for the services they offer, thereby directly boosting their bottom line.

min_wage_3

Similarly, the small businesses we surveyed that currently have employees mostly do not anticipate that a higher minimum wage would affect their labor costs since they already pay their employees more than $15 / hour.

min_wage_4

Of the 43 percent of small business employers that do anticipate an increase in their cost of doing business (only 19 percent of the entire group), more than half reported that they would offset this by raising prices for their consumers. Only 29 percent indicated that they would reduce their employees' hours or the size of their workforce and 20 percent said they would not change their business practices at all.

min_wage_2

Last month, small businesses reported a slight dip in economic optimism following a severe downturn in financial markets, though remained cautiously optimistic that we weren't heading into a recession. This faith has been rewarded over the last month with recent economic indicators offering encouraging news of what's happening in the economy.

Publicly traded equities have rebounded substantially, with the S&P 500 up 4.57% in the last month and more than 11% since its year-to-date low on February 11. Economic fundamentals also continue to show signs of strength. 242,000 workers were hired in the private sectors in February, continuing a 72-month streak of uninterrupted job gains, the longest on record. Similarly, the Bureau of Economic Analysis continues to increase its estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, revising it from an original of 0.7% and a second of 1.0% to a final one of 1.4%.

This bump in economic optimistic is apparent throughout the country, with fourteen of the fifteen biggest markets in America having sentiment scores this month that are higher than both last month and six months ago. Five of the fifteen also recorded a higher sentiment score this month than in any of the past six months. San Francisco is the one city that bucks this trend - it's March sentiment score is lower than each of the prior two months and four of the past six.

It's not just major metropolitan areas that are sharing in this renewed sense of economic optimism, though. In almost every state in the country, from Alabama to Oregon, the skilled professionals we heard from are more optimistic this month than last. This month-over-month growth in economic sentiment continues a nationwide trend since last fall of expanding optimism.

This pattern also holds across every industry represented in our survey. In all eleven industries — from wellness to landscaping — service professionals are feeling more optimistic in March than they were in February and in most of the last six months.

Put together, this month's survey results suggest that skilled professionals will do well this spring. Given their critical role in our economy, let's hope this is indeed what happens.

About the Author

Lucas Puente is Thumbtack's Economic Analyst. He joined Thumbtack after finishing his PhD at Stanford. A native North Carolinian, Lucas loves hiring Thumbtack Pros that make his life easier so he can spend more time doing the things he loves, like playing with data and riding his bike.


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<




Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.







Econintersect Economic Releases


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
The Theory of the Monetary Circuit: A Critique
The Expected Effects of Petitions to Improve the Monetary System
News Blog
What We Read Today 29 September 2016
This Mushroom Starts Killing You Before You Even Realize It
August 2016 Median Household Income Has Declined From The Beginning Of The Year
August 2016 Pending Home Sales Index Declines?
24 September 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Continue to Improve.
Third Estimate 2Q2016 GDP Revised Upward. Corporate Profits Down.
The Terrorist Networks At Our Fingertips
Infographic Of The Day: Dubai Interesting Statistics And Facts
Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Up, Oil Surges, OPEC Cuts Production, Student Loan Woes Mount, Trump Still Close, Aleppo Hospitals Bombed, Huge Wind Storm In Oz And More
The World's Most Sustainable Cities
Big Sam In Bad Company
Other Ways To Spend Your AirPod Budget
Crashing Space Station Shows Why China Must Start To Collaborate In Orbit
Investing Blog
Will Deutsche Bank Survive?
Banks Of Absurdity
Opinion Blog
The Federal Reserve Note
Trump, Trade And Taxes
Precious Metals Blog
War On Cash Turns To $20, $50, And $100 Bills
Live Markets
29Sep2016 Market Close: Wall Street Bracing For Major Turn Down If German Bank Fails, Crude Prices Rise Towards 50 Handle And US Dollar Showing New Strength
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved