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posted on 15 April 2016

08 April 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues Its Advance In Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward advanced in positive territory for the third week after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increases to 134.2 from 133.2. The growth rate rises to 2.5% from 1.5%.

To put the economy in perspective read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute's 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference this week. Please follow this link to the presentation slides.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The February number (issued in March) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rose

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from an upwardly revised 107.0 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The February reading was first reported as 105.1.

"The USFIG rose further in March to its highest reading since the summer of 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are in a clear cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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