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posted on 08 April 2016

01 April 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Again Improves And Climbs Higher In Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the second week after spending the previous 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released their inflation index this past week - and is discussed below.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 133.2 from 133.0. The growth rate rose to 1.6% from 0.7%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.


For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The February number (issued in March) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rose

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in March, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 107.8 from an upwardly revised 107.0 reading in February, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The February reading was first reported as 105.1.

"The USFIG rose further in March to its highest reading since the summer of 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures are in a clear cyclical upswing."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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