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posted on 01 April 2016

25 March 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improves And Is In Positive Territory

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward has broken into positive territory.This index spent the last 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rises to 133.0 from 132.5. The growth rate increases to 0.7% from -0.7%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The February number (issued in March) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The January reading was first reported as 102.7.

"The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still relatively restrained, have perked up a bit lately."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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