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posted on 25 March 2016

18 March 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improves And Is Now Barely Negative

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward is inching towards expansion.This index now spent 34 consecutive weeks in negative territory.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.4 from 131.8. The growth rate rose to -0.7% from -2.0%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Reuters.


For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The February number (issued in March) shows slower economic growth.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The January reading was first reported as 102.7.

"The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still relatively restrained, have perked up a bit lately."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The February's economy's rate of growth (released in March) showed the rate of growth was flat.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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