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posted on 04 March 2016

26 February 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Insignificant Decline

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - continued its decline in negative territory (although insignificant decline this week). This index now spent 30 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released its inflation gauge this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index virtually unchanged at 129.2. The growth rate ticked down to -3.5% from -3.4%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.


For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. The January number (issued in February) shows slight economic improvement in January.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 105.1 from an upwardly revised 103.4 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The January reading was first reported as 102.7.

"The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still relatively restrained, have perked up a bit lately."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January's economy's rate of growth (released in February) showed the rate of growth was marginally improving.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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