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posted on 26 February 2016

19 February 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Continues To Worsen

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward - continued its decline in negative territory. This index now spent 30 consecutive weeks in negative territory. ECRI also released its lagging index this week.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Edges Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up to 129.2 from 128.6. The growth rate ticks down to -3.4% from -3.1%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a current interview on Bloomberg.


For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. The January number (issued in February) shows slight economic improvement in January.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Inflation Gauge Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in January, as the U.S. future inflation gauge gained to 102.7 from an unrevised 102.3 reading in December, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG ticked up in January, but remains far below its 2014 highs," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while having crept up since last spring, remain fairly subdued."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January's economy's rate of growth (released in February) showed the rate of growth was marginally improving.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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